Five scenarios for how SuperTuesday could go, via NateSilver538:
In this case, Biden would finish 169 delegates ahead of Sanders. That’s hardly an insurmountable lead in a race with 3,979 pledged delegates total. But, the narrative of the evening would be quite poor for Sanders, perhaps leading to further Biden gains in subsequent states. That’s because, in this scenario, Sanders’s wins would be limited to Maine and Vermont, with Biden pulling off upsets in Massachusetts, Utah, Colorado and — most importantly, and only by the slimmest of margins — California.
As a slight silver lining for Sanders, note that he actually wins exactly as many delegates here as in the base case. That’s because Biden’s gains would take away votes from Bloomberg and Warren, knocking them below the 15 percent threshold in many districts, leaving Biden and Sanders more delegates to divvy up for themselves. Still, I’m sure Sanders would prefer to avoid this outcome.
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