What to watch for in the 14 states voting tomorrow
Will the Democratic race after Super Tuesday essentially be a two-candidate contest? Photo: Intelligencer and Getty Images After the marathon of the 2019 invisible primary, with its polls and debates and fundraising drives and candidates coming and going — just about everything but actual voting — the 2020 nominating contest has turned into a sprint. Super Tuesday arrives on March 3, just three days after the last of the four “early state” contests.
As of Monday night, FiveThirtyEight’s projections have Joe Biden favored in Alabama, Arkansas, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia and American Samoa., with Sanders favored in California, Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Utah, and Vermont. If either candidate has a significantly higher number of states in the win column, that could be a dominant headline while the dust settles.
No one other than Bloomberg and his closest associates knows whether there is some benchmark in the back of his mind for how well he needs to be doing to keep pouring his fortune into a potentially wasted effort . If there is a self-set bar for Bloomberg and he fails to reach it, we could be in a two-candidate race very soon, unless, that is, there is another candidate still in the mix…
4. Where will Pete’s and Amy’s voters go? The dramatic dual-withdrawals on Monday by Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar, and their dual-endorsements of Biden, are another factor suggesting late Super Tuesday momentum for Uncle Joe. Since these two candidates are generally considered fellow-moderates in the same “lane” as Biden, can he count on most of their supporters to switch to him?
The availability of these abandoned voters is another reason Warren has a tiny ray of hope — if she can win Massachusetts and avoid a ticket to the political boneyard. If, on the other hand, they do follow their former candidates into the Biden camp, it will provide another reason to do a double-take on Biden’s chances.
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