“I don’t think it’s like a fear of losing, really. I think it’s a fear of having to work hard,” says one GOP strategist about the retirements. “And what happens if you win? You got to go serve as Nancy Pelosi’s stooge”
—represent districts of varying degrees of competitiveness. For instance, Conaway and Flores handily won their elections in 2018,of roughly 62 and 15 percentage points, respectively. But by contrast, Olson won his district by approximately 5 percentage points, Marchant bested his Democratic challenger by just 3 percentage points and Hurd only eked out a victory by a less than 1 percentage point.
Being an elected official in Trump’s Republican Party comes with its own challenges as well. Perhaps most notably, on a near daily basis, GOP lawmakers are asked to defend the behavior and rhetoric of a president whose behavior and rhetoric is often indefensible. “They are seeing a landscape that is starting to shift to where the races are becoming more competitive. Personally, I think—and I know a couple of these guys—they are not MAGA heads, they are not Trump Republicans.
In short, this person added, “To kind of distill it down is, they’re tired of Trumpism; they’re doing a calculation, ‘Is it worth it?’ And they’ve decided no.” The recent spate of retirements in Texas has reinvigorated hope among Democrats—stung by Beto’s loss—of turning the state blue and winning its 38 electoral votes in 2020. Republicans I spoke with stopped short of endorsing the notion that Democrats will finally get their blue whale this upcoming cycle. “The undercurrent of ‘Texas could turn blue’ has been going on for what, 8, 10 years now? And I think what you saw with Beto was that the possibility is there. A lot of it is candidate based.
There is, however, a sense that Texas becoming a swing state is on the horizon. “I think it’s on the edge of being purple. It’s on the red edge of being purple…. A great Democrat in a terrible Republican year could probably win [statewide],” the Republican strategist told me. “What historically would’ve been nearly a 30-point race 20 years ago, and now it’s a 10-point race. And in 10 years it’ll probably be a dead heat race.
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