Demand for workers has roared back over the past two years. For now the hirers are trumping the firers
be hiring or firing? Demand for workers has roared back over the past two years so many firms need to hire. Yet at the same time fears of recession are widespread. Across industries firms are scrambling to find the right response—and coming up with different answers. Last week Snap, a social media firm, said it would fire a fifth of its workforce and noted the “difficult macro backdrop”.
Why is that? Behind today’s labour paradox lies three factors. First, high churn in the labour market. Second the post-pandemic shakeup to the labour market. And lastly most businesses, fighting day-to-day battles, have limited bandwidth to deal with the new complexities of the labour market. The few that do may be able to secure a lasting advantage.
For other firms, though, a cyclical downturn is forcing a rethink. Planned layoffs at companies such as Shopify, Netflix and Robinhood are a correction to rapid hiring earlier. A lot of the historical cyclicality in hiring is down to high-growth startups and newish businesses, says John Haltiwanger of the University of Maryland. In booms providers of capital, whether venture-capital funds, banks or public-market investors, are willing to fund all sorts of enterprises.
What about the second factor, the post-pandemic shift in the jobs market? Steven Davis, of the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business calls it the “great reshuffling”. The demand side of the jobs market has not been changed much by the pandemic, according to a a recent study by Eliza Forsythe of the University of Illinois, and three co-authors. Many of 20m American workers who were laid off in April 2020 were quickly recalled by their employers.
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