Republican presidential primary: the shape of the GOP race so far
THE SHAPE OF THE GOP RACE SO FAR. The Republican presidential field now includes a dozen candidates. It's a bigger group than some anticipated. The field seems set, and the next big event will be the first GOP debate, to be held on Aug. 23 on Fox News.
Subscribe today to the Washington Examiner magazine that will keep you up to date with what's going on in Washington. SUBSCRIBE NOW: Just $1.00 an issue! That continued for months. But DeSantis would only rise so high, and Trump would only fall so far. From mid-November 2022 until the end of March 2023, the newer, narrower race remained stable. At its closest point, in late February, Trump's lead over DeSantis was 12.8 points. That was a lot closer than 30-plus points, but it was still a solid Trump lead.
Soon after, the third race-changing event occurred. It was not one single event but a series of developments involving lesser candidates. First, several new candidates entered: Asa Hutchinson, Chris Christie, Larry Elder, Francis Suarez, Doug Burgum, and others. Then, one candidate who had joined in February, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, made a small move upward in the polls.
But as far as the polls are concerned, the federal indictment seems to have had little effect on Trump's standing. Trump dipped about 3 points in the RealClearPolitics average after the indictment but remained above 50% the whole time. There are various theories to explain this, the simplest being that Republican voters already saw Trump as having been unfairly targeted by the Justice Department and saw the Smith indictment as just one more unfair attack on the former president.
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