The number of young adults in Britain is about to rise sharply

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The number of young adults in Britain is about to rise sharply
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Britain’s youth bulge is a product of historic demographic trends and immigration, and is likely to transform the country as it ages

Now Britain has one, bucking the trend in the rich world. It is more subtle than those colossal demographic shifts, but is significant nonetheless. The number of 18-year-olds, which fell during the 2010s, has begun to rise sharply. Britain had 715,000 of them in 2020 and expects to have 893,000 in 2030—a 25% increase. It will take a decade for the number to begin to fall again .

Britain’s post-war baby boom was odd. Although births jumped immediately after the war, the surge did not endure, as it did in America. Instead, the baby boom really got going in the second half of the 1950s. It peaked in 1964, when 876,000 babies were born. When that large cohort got around to having children, in the late 1980s and early 1990s, there was another baby boom, known as the “echo boom”. Many of the youngsters alive today are their children—an echo of the echo boom.

Schools have been the first to notice the bulge. There were more than 600,000 applications for secondary schools this year, 16% more than seven years ago. But because births declined after 2012, primary schools are quieter. The number of applicants is the lowest for seven years, meaning 92% of children this year got into their parents’ first-choice school. In east London, Tower Hamlets council is amalgamating primary schools, citing a “sudden fall” in applications.

As the swollen generation enters the workforce, businesses will benefit—beginning with the hospitality industry, which depends on young people. Bars, hotels and restaurants blame their present recruitment difficulties on Brexit, which has reduced the flow of immigrants from continental Europe, and on the indolence engendered by covid-19 lockdowns. But the decade-long decline in 18-year-olds has added to their difficulties. Hiring will soon become easier.

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