The new research comes as heat waves sweep across the central U.S. and Europe, including in Chicago and Paris - two cities modeled in the study.
Beachgoers crowd Montrose Beach, Sunday, Aug. 20, 2023, in Chicago. The National Weather Service set an excessive heat warning Sunday for parts of Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, Iowa and Nebraska.
“This is a proof of concept that existing climate models can deliver useful information about the range of possible extreme weather events,” said David Ham, a geoscientific model developer at Imperial College London who was not involved in the study. “Previously, it would not have been believed that they could do so.”
“The longer we measure, we should expect to see less and less records because we should have seen almost everything that’s possible. But with climate change, that’s quite different,” said Erich Fischer, a climate scientist at ETH Zurich and lead author of the study. “We see a lot more heat records [than] we should be expecting to see by chance, and these records are broken by larger margins.”
“The exact same weather system is happening in a substantially warmer background climate,” said Fischer. “Warm air that is sucked in is also warmer. The land certainly is hotter, so the whole thing can actually amplify.” Fischer said running more simulations “may become really expensive,” so they tried a different focused approach to push the climate model to its limits. They picked the worst-case scenario in the previous model runs. Then, they restarted the model two to three weeks before the worst-case scenario occurred to produce thousands of outputs. Not only were they able to reproduce the extreme scenarios, but they produced events that were even hotter.
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