It’s “really hard for one party to win when the other party has designed the maps,” said political scientist Chris Warshaw.
in those states won top-of-the-ticket races for president or statewide offices. In short: Republicans won more seats than would have been expected based on the percentage of votes they received.In an era of increased political polarization among voters, the past decade showed that it’s “really hard for one party to win when the other party has designed the maps,” said Chris Warshaw, a political scientist at George Washington University.
Like 10 years ago, Republicans will have an advantage over Democrats. The GOP will control redistricting in the pivotal states of Texas, Florida and North Carolina — three of the six states gaining seats in the U.S. House. Independent commissions will draw maps in Colorado and Montana, each gaining a seat. Oregon also is adding a seat, but majority Democrats in the House have agreed to share control of the redistricting process with Republicans.
The AP compared its findings to data compiled by Warshaw using a similar formula for hundreds of congressional and state legislative elections dating to the 1970s. All told, there were eight states with a decade-long partisan tilt of about one congressional seat from 2012-2020 — matching the combined total from 1972-2010, according to Warshaw’s data.
Ohio Senate President Matt Huffman, a Republican, said new redistricting criteria limiting the splitting of counties should put an end to oddly shaped districts, such as the so-called “snake on the lake” that stretches from Toledo to Cleveland to squeeze together a bunch of Democratic voters. However, Hoffman maintains Democrats could have won more seats under the current map if they had run better campaigns in closely contested districts.
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