Census data spurred GOP's largest partisan edge in decades

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Census data spurred GOP's largest partisan edge in decades
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Fresh off sweeping electoral victories a decade ago, Republican politicians used census data to draw voting districts that gave them a greater political advantage in more states than either party had in the past 50 years, according to AP analysis.

That advantage, measured by a formula designed to detect potential gerrymandering, allowed Republicans to hold decade-long majorities in some congressional delegations or statehouses even as Democrats in those states won top-of-the-ticket races for president or statewide offices. In short: Republicans won more seats than would have been expected based on the percentage of votes they received.

Because of recent redistricting reforms, it could be more difficult for Republicans to maintain their advantage in some states. But in an era of increased political polarization among voters, the past decade showed that it’s “really hard for one party to win when the other party has designed the maps,” said Chris Warshaw, a political scientist at George Washington University who analyzes election data.

In each election from 2012 to 2020, Republicans in Florida, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas won about one more U.S. House seat than would have been expected based on their average share of the district votes. Republicans controlled the redistricting process after the 2010 census in each of those states except New York, where courts drew the map because the Democratic-led Assembly and Republican-led Senate failed to agree.

The Republican-controlled swing states of Florida, North Carolina and Ohio showed a persistent Republican tilt in both their congressional and state House districts. “Those who want to simply say, `Well, it’s all because of what the districts are,′ well that’s just simply false,” Huffman said. “It’s not just about indexes and parties; it’s about candidates.”

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