President Joe Biden’s Monday campaign event with California Gov. Gavin Newsom will be a meeting of two Democrats whose fortunes are careening in opposite directions
Yet while Biden’s standing has flipped over the past month-plus — he’s now in negative territory in the FiveThirtyEight average, 45 percent approval to 48 percent disapproval — Newsom has seen crucial improvement, leading the recall by a double-digit margin in the California poll average as of Thursday.
“The big changes were on the Democratic side,” said Mark Baldassare, the president and CEO of the Public Policy Institute of California, pointing to increased Democratic engagement as the recall drew nearer. “I would probably say that had to do with the recall becoming more real for the Democrats over time and a reflection of the fact that they were paying attention to the recall and its consequences.
“Larry Elder has been the best thing to happen to Gavin Newsom since they invented hair gel,” quipped Chris Stirewalt, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and the former political editor at Fox News Channel. New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy is well ahead of his GOP challenger this year, but the race appears closer in Virginia, where former Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe is seeking his old job. McAuliffe has led in all of the public polls, but Republican Glenn Youngkin’s campaign released an internal survey this week showing him neck-and-neck with the Democrat.
Biden’s “ratings have gone down,” said Baldassare. “They’re still high, and I believe somewhat higher than Newsom’s ratings. But they have gone down.”
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