Without maintaining strong social-distancing measures, the US's coronavirus death toll could breach 100,000 by the end of May.
After weeks of economically devastating lockdowns, state and county officials are contemplating how and when to safely reopen for business — even though the US has topped 1.1 million confirmed coronavirus cases.
More and more epidemiological models show, however, that the consequences of ignoring experts' warnings could be severe, resulting in thousands of preventable deaths. Georgia, which reopened nonessential businesses in April, could be the earliest state to learn that firsthand.The US's national death count will likely keep rising to some degree, no matter what the state and federal governments do.
The main model cited by the White House coronavirus task force showed a more optimistic forecast until it was revised upward this week. The model, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, now estimates a death count of 134,475 by August 4 — nearly double its late April projection of 72,433 deaths by August.The model's drastic revision was largely due to"premature relaxation of social distancing," Dr.
The document, which was based on preliminary modeling, suggested that the US's daily coronavirus death toll could nearly double over the next month, The New York Times reported on Monday. Daily deaths could grow to about 3,000 by June 1 from about 1,750 now, according to the report. "This data is not reflective of any of the modeling done by the task force or data that the task force has analyzed," Deere added.
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