How will the Trump administration respond?
THE BLACK-AND-WHITE video is grainy, but what it shows is clear, claims America. An Iranian patrol boat pulls up alongside a ship called the. Iranian sailors, thought to be members of the Revolutionary Guard Corps, then remove an unexploded limpet mine from the hull of the ship. The, had been crippled hours earlier in “unprovoked attacks” by Iran on June 13th, said Mike Pompeo, America’s secretary of state. Iran denied it was to blame. But hardliners on both sides risk escalating the conflict.
For an idea of how things could play out some are looking to the past. The so-called tanker war between Iraq and Iran in the 1980s ravaged shipping in the Gulf. Though most attacks were from the air, the Guards honed the use of mine-planting boats—similar to the vessel captured on video on June 13th. Eventually, and with reluctance, America agreed to reflag and escort Kuwaiti vessels through the area.
Iran has in the past threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to American sanctions. Some will see the strikes against ships in the area as a veiled warning of its readiness to make good on its threat. President Donald Trump said on June 14th that if Iran were to block the strait, “it’s not going to be closed for long.
Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is decidedly in the latter camp. Though he gave Mr Rouhani space to negotiate the nuclear deal, his dismissive reaction to Mr Abe suggests that his patience has run out. Ideology aside, the Guards benefit from what they call the “resistance economy”. Two years ago Mr Rouhani was trying to reduce the group’s role in business. Now, with private firms sidelined, the Guards can step in as the contractor of last resort.
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