China's economy shrank 6.8% in January-March from a year earlier, official data showed on Friday, the first such decline since at least 1992 when quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) records began.
- China’s economy shrank 6.8% in January-March from a year earlier, official data showed on Friday, the first such decline since at least 1992 when quarterly gross domestic product records began.
“To offset weakness in external demand, we will see some policy support later this month or early May... we expect policy response in the property market, with looser credit not just for developers but in household loans as well, there may be looser buyer restriction too.” “The currency’s movement is still dependent on the virus situation globally. And, I see chances the yuan could trade towards 7 per dollar mark.”“I have some doubts about the data, particularly industrial production. If you look at industrial production month-on-month, it shows output rose slightly in March. I doubt Chinese factories were able to recover that quickly.
“Whether it will recover the full 10% is hard to say, but the recovery looks real. Weekly data on transport, energy usage, property sales and the like all show an improvement. “As for the properties side, demand may not pick up as much because people don’t know how this thing’s gonna pan out, whether they will have a job. So, if the developers are not able to offload the inventory, they may struggle for a while.
“But I think in the second quarter we will see at most a stabilisation, not a rebound, because cases are still rising for most of China’s trading partners, which will dampen orders going forward. Based on this first-quarter number, I would say the whole year GDP growth would be something around 2%.”- China, where the new coronavirus first emerged, has reported more than 3,000 deaths although new infections have dropped significantly from their peak.
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