The coronavirus health crisis likely knocked China’s economy into its first decline since at least 1992 in the first quarter: Reuters poll
BEIJING - The coronavirus health crisis likely knocked China’s economy into its first decline since at least 1992 in the first quarter, raising the heat on authorities to do more to restore growth as mounting job losses threaten social stability.
While those restrictions are gradually being lifted, similar lockdowns now in effect in other major economies hit by the pandemic have significantly darkened the outlook for global demand, which would hurt China’s massive export sector. “Economic growth will also depend on the strength of stimulus policies. Fiscal policy will play a leading role while monetary policy will be modestly expansionary.”
For 2020, China’s economic growth is expected to slow sharply to 2.5% from 6.1% in 2019, a separate Reuters poll showed, which would be the weakest clip since 1976, the final year of the decade-long Cultural Revolution that wrecked the economy. Fixed-asset investment is forecast to fall 15.1% in the first three months from a year earlier, moderating from a 24.5% slide in the first two months, according to the poll.
Sources told Reuters the People’s Bank of China would ease some of its monetary settings but would not follow the U.S. Federal Reserve’s steep rate cuts or quantitative easing, mindful of debt and property market risks.
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