JUST IN: After Super Tuesday, Joe Biden is a clear favorite to win the Democratic nomination, according to FiveThirtyEight's primary forecast. Bernie Sanders has a window—but it’s small.
of caution for the next few days until we have new polling and a better sense of what the post-Super Tuesday landscape looks like. There are several uncertainties to keep in mind:
Many states, especially California, are not yet done counting their votes. In California, the results could shift significantly based on late-returned mail ballots. Under the state’s rules, ballots only need to have beenTwo candidates, Sen. Elizabeth Warren and former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, have just dropped out, and while the model makes some educated guesses about where their support will go, it may be wrong about that.
Super Tuesday itself could have a substantial effect on the polls — most likely in the form of a bounce for Biden. The model, again, makes educated guesses about the size of these bounces. But those guesses may not be right: Biden got a much bigger South Carolina bounce than is typical for that state, for example; while Sanders got little, if any, bounce after winning Nevada when the model expected him to get one.
First, he’s already behind by around 70 delegates, according to our estimates, based on returns in each state as— a reflection of the fact that Biden surged in the race in the final few days before Super Tuesday. As mentioned, Biden will probably get a bounce in the polls as a result of his Super Tuesday wins. The model’s guess is that he’s currently ahead by the equivalent of 6 or 7 points in national polls. So although momentumSome of Sanders’s best states have already voted, and the upcoming states generally either aren’t good for him
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