In my 50-plus years of managing money — which started back in the days when Carly Simon was cranking out hits — recessions have mostly been surprises. Now, almost everybody expects one.
No stranger to life’s surprises, in her 1971 single “Anticipation” she crooned, “We can never know about the days to come but we think about them anyway.”Advertisement
More specifically, gloomy business leaders are nixing growth endeavors and cutting costs as if recession were already here. There have been Beyond headcount, the World Federation of Advertisers found almost a third of multinationals slashing ad budgets, with 75% putting spending plans under “heavy scrutiny.” Firms are squeezing operations—accelerating receivables collections, scrapping productivity-sapping meetings, even kiboshing free coffee.
Recessions wring out the excesses of prior expansions — indeed, that is their very reason for being. But this time, firms have been increasingly at it since spring. How much wringing remains? Enough for a brutal recession and another bear market implosion? Unlikely. Widespread anticipation renders mild downturns — or none at all.
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