A Scottish independence referendum is far more winnable with Ruth Davidson out of the way
voice about to be heard at last? In the Brexit referendum of 2016, fully 62% of Scots backed Remain. To no avail—England’s vastly greater size ensured that a narrow majority for Leave in the south dictated Britain’s exit from the European Union. Since then, Scotland’s politicians have largely played the role of bystanders as the Conservatives and Labour in Westminster have scrapped with each other, and between themselves, for control of the Brexit agenda.
The arrival of Boris Johnson in 10 Downing Street suggests that a strain of English nationalism, embraced by Mr Johnson in an attempt to see off the threat of Nigel Farage and his Brexit Party, is to play a prominent role in Tory thinking. This has proved too much for Ruth Davidson, the popular leader of Scotland’s Conservatives, who last week announced her departure.
Mr Johnson needs those Westminster seats to stay blue in the general election that is expected to be called soon. In the election of 2017, a disastrous night for the Tories in England, the strong showing of the Scottish Conservatives was crucial to keeping the party in government. But the Tory roots in those Scottish seats are shallow, and the margin of victory last time mostly nothing to write home about. A majority of voters backed Remain in all but one of them.
Ms Davidson’s successor matters, therefore. Scottish Tory insiders expect a run-off between a pro-Brexit, pro-Johnson candidate , who might wrap himself in a union flag and prove popular with party members, and a candidate who argues for more distance and autonomy from the English party, such as Murdo Fraser, who is likely to be favoured by Tory members of the Scottish Parliament.
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