Democrats Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren have led the pack for months, each topping polls in one or more early state.
With less than 60 days before the first votes are counted in Iowa, four candidates are in the mix or leading in at least one of the four early-voting states.
The quartet of former Vice President Joe Biden; South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg; and Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren has led the pack for months, with each having topped polls in one or more of the early states. At times, each of them has led a poll in at least one of the early states, while Biden has led most national polls.
Story continues"It would make Mike Bloomberg smile broadly" if four different candidates won the first four states, said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center."That would be the ideal Bloomberg scenario." Ann Selzer, who conducts the famed Iowa Poll for the Des Moines Register, called Buttigieg the"stand-alone leader" in Iowa but said someone could still challenge him in a state where voters tend to decide late, even into caucus night.
In New Hampshire, which votes Feb. 11, a close four-way race has held for weeks, with Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders and Warren each leading in at least one of the six most recent polls. "The 'bookends' potentially could be Buttigieg and Biden on the front and back end of the four," Paleologos said,"and then in the middle you've got the hometown fight for New Hampshire and then the granular caucus fight in Nevada and potentially that could be won by the other candidate."
The last time it happenedNot since 1992, when Tom Harkin won Iowa, Paul Tsongas won New Hampshire, Jerry Brown won Maine and Bob Kerrey won South Dakota, has four different candidates won the first states in the Democratic Primary. None of them where the eventual winner, Bill Clinton, whose famous strong second-place performance in New Hampshire coined him"The Comeback Kid."
Democrats the two previous cycles, John Kerry in 2004 and Al Gore in 2000, secured the nomination early in the process. Gore swept the early states. Kerry won Iowa and New Hampshire before dominating an early"Mini Tuesday" one week later, winning six of seven states.
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