A little known, off-year election in Wisconsin could determine the crucial swing state's Electoral College votes in 2024, according to local experts.
for absentee ballots and having absentee ballots returned by a third party, such as a nonprofit organization doing voter mobilization.
This year, Justice Patience Roggensack, a conservative, is not running for reelection, giving liberals a chance to flip her seat and form a majority that could go the other way on issues like voter ID, absentee voting rules and redistricting. But progressive activists also say that installing a liberal majority on the court would eliminate the risk that Trump, who’s seeking the 2024 Republican nomination, could get Wisconsin’s next presidential election overturned.
“It's kind of hard to assess how such a challenge would come out without knowing the circumstances of the challenge,” said Rick Esenberg, president and general counsel of the Wisconsin Institute for Law & Liberty, a conservative legal advocacy organization. On the other hand, even if a conservative wins in April, it won’t necessarily guarantee that justices would rule in favor of a future election challenge.
Esenberg argued that those rulings may not be reversed even if liberals do take the majority on the court because reversing a ruling is a heavy lift. He added that Wisconsin law clearly disallows drop boxes and third-party return of ballots. “Changing precedent is always a difficult thing,” he said. “It requires a whole other layer of justification, so it’s not as easy or as automatic as you might expect it to be.
“If the progressives gain control of the court, then my organization and other organizations will bring an action to open up the partisan gerrymandering on constitutional grounds,” Heck of Common Cause said. A change to the legislative districts could in turn determine control of the state Legislature, which not only makes laws for Wisconsin but draws legislative boundaries for its congressional districts and has the power to change the voting laws even if the courts do not.
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