A big question for the U.S. intelligence community from MPolymer: Has China learned lessons from Russia's debacle in Ukraine?
learned lessons from Russia's debacle in Ukraine? Has China learned from Russia's experience in order to improve its own intelligence game in anticipation of a future military move on Taiwan?has been an abject failure for Russian intelligence. The foreign policy community once considered the CIA’s call in 2002 that Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction as one of the most significant intelligence failures in modern history.
always wanted, which was to invade Ukraine on a cost-free basis. One wonders how the FSB, GRU military intelligence and SVR foreign intelligence chiefs have kept their jobs.After all, even after the invasion began and Ukraine showed great resilience, Russian intelligence has continued to perform poorly. Western intelligence services have gone on the offensive, expelling over 400 Russian officials serving in their countries.
So, as China eyes Taiwan, Beijing must consider three fundamental missteps on the part of its Russian intelligence friends.The FSB leadership thought they had Ukraine wired for a quick and decisive move on Kyiv. Yet Russian intelligenceon nearly every facet of its operational preparation of the environment. Russian agents in Ukraine did not perform — if they even existed at all. The money allocated to these agents seems to have disappeared, perhaps stolen by FSB members themselves.
Top line: we must be cognizant that China is almost certainly conducting a dynamic after-action review of Russian intelligence failures in Ukraine. Beijing may not make similar mistakes regarding an invasion of Taiwan. The U.S. must get our assessments right on Chinese intelligence capabilities and the degree to which Beijing learned from Russia’s debacle.
Marc Polymeropoulos is a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. A former CIA senior operations officer, he retired in 2019 after a 26-year career serving in the Near East and South Asia. His book More from Examiner
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