Opinion: Will a red wave crest the Sierras?
While the title of this column assumes that Republicans will do very well nationally on election day, it’s not just idle speculation. Democrats and pundits have all but conceded the inevitability. Political junkies will also tell you that it is confirmed by several factors beyond polling. For example, in races that were once thought to be competitive, Democrats have shifted resources to safer districts to protect incumbents.
First, the history, which suggests tough sledding for the Republicans. In three election cycles during the last 20 years, Republicans performed much better than expected nationally but underperformed in California. For example, in 2010, when national Republicans gained 63 seats in the House of Representatives, and biggest party swing since 1948, California Republicans lost a seat in the California Assembly and Democrats won every statewide office.
The 2016 election saw Donald Trump swept into the White House and Republicans returned to power in Congress, albeit with diminished majorities. In California, Republicans lost seats in both houses of the Legislature, and in California’s first open Senate seat in 24 years, two Democrats made it into the top-two.
The history outlined above can, for conservatives, turn the most optimistic voter into a Debbie Downer. So, where’s that ray of sunshine?While Democrats focus on Trump, January 6th, abortion and , Republicans are talking about inflation, crime, homelessness, and school test scores. An argument can be made that on each of these issues the situation is worse in California. Take, for example, the price of gas, which is the highest in the nation.
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