Iowa's a little more than a month away, and we don't really know who is ahead, let alone who is going to win | Analysis by Harry Enten
Poll of the week: There's no poll of the week because there's been a dearth of polling for the all-important Iowa Democratic caucuses. What's the point: Iowa's a little more than a month away, and we don't really know who is ahead, let alone who is going to win. Our lack of knowledge is for two reasons: a lack of polling and the polls that we do have show a close race at the top. Over the last month, there have been only two public polls conducted and released in Iowa.
Buttigieg, Biden, Sanders or Warren would all still be conceivable winners.Given that we're more than a month away, we really don't know who the heck is going to win Iowa. We can see this by looking at polls one to two months before the caucuses since 2000. Compare the average poll standing for each eventual winner and what they earned in the final result. The median difference has been 9 points. Four out of eight times, the difference has topped 10 points.
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