Is the stock market on the brink of breaking into an unmitigated run-up to fresh records?
That is the question a number of market strategists are exploring as the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.36%, the S&P 500 SPX, +0.71%, and the Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.91% indexes mount their latest concerted assault on all-time closing highs, powered by hope that the U.S. and China can forge a preliminary trade accord to resolve a prolonged battle over import duties.
A call by some market participants for further gains for equity indexes now comes as the S&P 500 has gained nearly 27.3% in the year to date, the Dow has returned about 21% so far this year and the Nasdaq has produced a year-to-date return thus far of about 33%, according to FactSet data. Analysts at Morgan Stanley, led by Michael Wilson, chief U.S. strategist, have described the current state of bullish play as a trifecta of catalysts. Those include accommodative central banks, providing fresh liquidity to already-buoyant markets; easing Brexit uncertainty; and apparent progress toward a meaningful detente in China-U.S. trade relations.
“Further, the current level of this measure is worse than it was during the 2015–2016 manufacturing recession, a trend driven mainly by smaller-capitalization companies which are struggling with higher labor costs,” they said.
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