'A single group of voters...is poised to decide the 2024 election. These voters broke for President Donald Trump in 2016, for President Joe Biden in 2020, and they are leaning heavily against Trump in 2024.' -conncarroll
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In 2016, more voters had a favorable opinion of Hillary Clinton than they did of Trump . And almost every voter that had a favorable opinion of Clinton voted for Clinton and the same for Trump . Where Trump closed the gap on Clinton was among voters who had unfavorable opinions of both candidates — about 20% of the electorate. Trump beat Clinton by 17 points among voters that had unfavorable opinions of both candidates.
Fast forward to 2020, and an August Monmouth University poll found that among voters who had unfavorable opinions of both Biden and Trump , Biden held a 40-point lead! Now, according to the final 2020 exit polls, Trump did end up beating Biden among voters who had unfavorable opinions of both candidates by about 15%. But that might have to do with the pool of these voters falling dramatically to just 3%. In short, most of the voters who had disliked both candidates in August 2020 became voters that only disapproved of Trump by November.
Considering that Gov. Ron DeSantis has much higher favorable ratings than Biden and Trump, it is not surprising that in both national and state polls, Trump is consistently losing to Biden, whereas DeSantis is beating him.
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