“Our best guess is for a directionless dollar early on as the various storylines sort themselves out.'
Good for you if you picked the dollar. Unlike those other two assets, the U.S. currency didn’t seem to attract much buying interest as investors shunned global stocks at the end of last week and went looking for safety following a U.S. military strike that killed a top Iranian military commander and heightened Middle East tensions.
The dollar rose 0.1% versus the euro on Friday but tumbled 0.4% versus the yen. The dollar was virtually unchanged versus the franc USDCHF, -0.0721% on Friday after setting a 15-month low versus the Swiss currency on New Year’s Eve, according to FactSet data. “When, instead, geopolitical tensions arise that do not tighten liquidity conditions, the dollar is more likely to fall against other major havens, such as the yen and Swiss franc, and will probably trade sideways against the euro,” said Barrow, who expects the dollar to lose around 5% to 10% in broad trade-weighted terms in 2020.
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