How we fight climate change in the next decade is critical to the planet's future. If we blow it we'll miss our chance to meet global climate goals.
to consider the options as they start preparing the next major IPCC report. There’s little debate that keeping warming to 1.5 degrees will require sweeping efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the next few years.
Last year’s IPCC report, which Rogelj and Shindell helped write, surveyed the results of hundreds of scientific studies and concluded that emissions must drop to roughly half of 2010 levels by 2030 to maintain a decent shot at 1.5 degrees. By 2050 or so, carbon emissions must fall to zero, or close to it.
But the exact figure has proved difficult to pin down. Scientists think climate sensitivity lies somewhere between 0.8 and 2.5 degrees while CO2 levels are still changing, as they are now, and between 1.5 and 4.5 degrees once the planet has settled into a new equilibrium. The true value of climate sensitivity will largely determine how much warming we have in store due to greenhouse gases we’ve already emitted, and how much carbon we can emit in the future and still meet climate targets.
Recent estimates of transient climate sensitivity point to somewhat lower numbers; if so, we have until midcentury to curtail emissions. But scientists say that’s no reason to dally.In the long run, the bigger factor controlling Earth’s temperature is how much we manage to reduce emissions in the next decade, Lamontagne said.
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