Mark Hulbert explains why the next bear market in stocks could sink the Dow 35%
Predicting when the next bear market will occur is notoriously difficult. Just ask stock-market timers. But what about predicting the severity of the next bear market?
The first hypothesis I tested is that a bear market’s severity is a function of the prior bull market’s length. Some have worried that this might be the case, since many assume that the current bull market is the longest in U.S. market history. The chart shows that the Dow’s average loss in the first group of bear markets was 27.8%, versus an average loss of 34.5% for the second group of bear markets. Unfortunately, given the relatively small sample size and the variability in the data, this difference is not significant at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use when determining whether a pattern is real.
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