A seemingly unstoppable rally for U.S. technology stocks might be about to turn a corner. Here's why.
A seemingly unstoppable rally for U.S. technology stocks might be about to turn a corner given persistently weak market breadth in the face of an unrelenting rise in Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar, according to Jonathan Krinsky, technical strategist at BTIG.
“While we are only through three quarters, the last full calendar year in which the NDX didn’t have a 2.5% down day or worse was 2013,” Krinsky said . Krinsky used the Nasdaq Composite COMP to get a broader sense of the market breadth. He said the percentage of stocks on the Nasdaq Composite above their 200-day-moving-average was over 70% in 2013, and it only dipped below 65% for a handful of days. However, this year, the 200-DMA for the Nasdaq Composite has “routinely” been below 50% with only a brief spike above in February, Krinsky said.
As a result, the streak for the Nasdaq 100 is likely in jeopardy over the coming days or weeks given persistently weak breadth in the face of screaming Treasury yields and U.S. dollar, Krinsky said. “We can’t help but think a 2.5% or worse downside day is coming sooner than later,” he added.Treasury yields continued to climb on Tuesday with the 30-year yield BX:TMUBMUSD30Y jumping above 4.9% and heading for its highest level in 16 years.
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