A large-scale analysis of studies on cash transfers implies that they could reduce mortality, especially in women – but does the data really back that up? 📨 Read StuartJRitchie's latest newsletter
paper is that it isn’t itself a new experiment on cash transfers: it’s a “secondary” analysis. That is, they found all the low- and middle-income countries where any kind of cash transfer had been done – and included cash transfers that were conditional or unconditional, involved just a particular group of people or the entire population, and were targeted at different age groups.
And here’s how they summarise their results: “We found that cash-transfer programmes were associated with a 20 per cent reduced risk of death in adult women and a 8 per cent reduced risk in children aged younger than five years old.”Who could argue with that excellent-sounding result? Except… this is actually the sort of statement that should ring alarm bells.
The result for women looks fairly convincing, but that smaller 8 per cent effect for children under five is right on the very borderline of what would be considered “statistically significant” . This means that it’s probably quite fragile: you could easily imagine it being different with a slightly different dataset, or a slightly different age split.
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