Most commodity prices stalled this winter but lithium continued to ride high. Now the rally has gone into reverse
The rally has since gone into reverse. Prices for Chinese lithium carbonate, one of the two main forms of refined lithium, have more than halved this year . One reason is slowing demand fors in China, the biggest market for them. Another is that carmakers such as Ford and Volkswagen, eager to enter a race dominated by Tesla and Chinese rivals, signed battery-supply deals at high prices last year. They are now reviewing the terms, further dampening appetite.
Prices have yet to reach a floor but they are unlikely to fall far enough to bury big miners’ profits. Prices below $22,000 a tonne, far lower than today’s levels, would cause many of China’s domestic mines to shut down, lowering supply. And even as the refined product has become cheaper, the price of spodumene, a feedstock used to transform lithium ores, remains high, squeezing processors’ margins. They too may be forced to slash production, supporting prices of the refined stuff.
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