Why at-home COVID-19 tests may limit the way the U.S. tracks new cases

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Why at-home COVID-19 tests may limit the way the U.S. tracks new cases
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The majority of people in the U.S. who are testing positive for the virus right now likely aren’t being included in official case counts.

The majority of people in the U.S. who are testing positive for the coronavirus right now likely aren’t being included in official case counts, and that means our understanding of current — or future — waves of the virus is weaker than it’s been in the past.

For the week ending May 7, there were an estimated two positive COVID-19 laboratory tests for every five positive at-home tests, which largely go unreported. The widespread availability of at-home tests has been a good thing for Americans. Ever since the start of this year, when the Biden administration made at-home COVID-19 tests available free to American households, they’ve become part of our everyday lives. Boxes of BinaxNow and FlowFlex are stacked near pharmacy checkout lines. A certain number of tests can be reimbursed by insurance. And fewer people are waiting in long lines for a PCR test or days to get a result.

“We’re probably in the midst of a large surge,” said Dr. Michael Mina, a former Harvard University epidemiologist who is now the chief science officer at eMed, which connects at-home tests with telehealth services. “We’re seeing right now rates that are higher than any other time in the pandemic, with the exception of during the very, very, very peak of omicron.”

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