Comparing the value of the Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson trades
Just plugged in the numbers for the Wilson and Watson trades using the Fitzgerald-Spielberger chart. Not including discounts on future picks which I valued as the 16th pick of each round— Jason_OTC What Fitzgerald is referring to is a compilation of research by he and Brad Spielberger, attempting to retroactively gauge the value of rookie contracts in order to assess value of draft pick trades.It’s only slightly different than the Jimmy Johnson trade chart, used by GMs for years.
I’ll fully admit, I was quite emotionally responsive to the Wilson trade initially. Just something about the headliner of two first-round picks felt lacking. But these are really comparable packages, all the more considering a couple of factors GMs take seriously. Watson is only 26 years old, and Wilson 33. Furthermore, Wilson’s previous two years of second-half play have been seriously questionable. I’m not going to argue that Watson is a better guarantee in 2022 than Wilson, but he’s got a better career completion percentage and yards per attempt than Wilson with legs that still do the running thing.
It seems like John Schneider got at least market value for his franchise quarterback. Plus, consider Denver’s chances of running away with divisional wins infinitesimal compared to the far weaker AFC North, when considering 2023 draft picks.
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