Which nominees will take home Emmy gold? And who should win, but won’t? Our experts make their predictions
Julia Louis-Dreyfus is a shoo-in for another Emmy. Photo: HBO The 71st Emmy Awards air this Sunday, September 22. Which nominees will take home Emmy gold? And who should win, but won’t? Lucky for your awards pool, Vulture staffers Jen Chaney, Matt Zoller Seitz, and Kathryn VanArendonk are here to break down their expert Emmy predictions for the major contenders in comedy, drama, limited series, and variety series.• The Marvelous Mrs.
But let’s run through them nonetheless. I feel the same way about Levy’s nomination that I do about Schitt’s Creek’s for outstanding comedy: nice to be nominated, but probably won’t win. This is Anthony Anderson’s fifth nomination for Black-ish; he’s never won and I don’t see that changing this year. Cheadle is one of the high points of Black Monday, but some voters may not even be familiar with such an under-the-radar cable series.
The Emmy should go to … Stephen Root for Barry. Winkler is great and Carrigan is the definition of a hoot as Noho Hank, but Root’s performance went to deep and constantly surprising places this season. It’s also Root’s first Emmy nomination. This guy’s been a great actor forever. Give him an award! Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy • Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs.
The Emmy should go to … This is a close call, but I lean toward Fleabag because it’s so tightly constructed and directed by Bradbeer as if he’s visually channeling Waller-Bridge’s voice.
I can’t completely put a line through Jason Bateman’s name because voters seem to really like Ozark, which suggests he could be a surprise winner. But if I had to put money on this — which, to be clear, I don’t and I’m not — I would put it on Billy Porter, who has been doing a ton of press and promotion to make sure his terrific performance as Pray Tell isn’t forgotten. —JC
But there is something to that splitting-of-the-vote possibility, which is why my guess is that Garner, who’s proven her range as an actor not only on Ozark but The Americans and Dirty John, will prevail. —JC Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series • Better Call Saul, “Winner,” Peter Gould and Thomas Schnauz • Game of Thrones, “The Iron Throne,” David Benioff and D. B. Weiss • Killing Eve, “Nice and Neat,” Emerald Fennell It’s fairly common for the Outstanding Drama winner to also win for writing. But the script for the Game of Thrones finale was definitely not its strongest asset, which opens the door a little bit.
FX’s Fosse/Verdon was catnip for fans of Broadway, musical theater, and showbiz history; the murderer’s row of behind-the-scenes producing talent amplified the must-see factor, even more so than the spot-on casting in every major role. But despite strong feminist underpinnings, its early installments played like another entry in the Toxic Male Genius genre, and it might suffer from being nearly impenetrable if you don’t know the main players.
Jharrel Jerome, who excelled as teenage Kevin in Moonlight, was the only actor in Ava DuVernay’s When They See Us to play both the teenage and adult incarnations of his character, Korey Wise. The lighting, makeup, and hairstyling helped, but it was mostly Jerome’s masterful body language that sold the character’s evolution — the sense that Wise was so transformed by his unjust experience that the emotional weight he carried had turned physical.
But it’s doubtful that anyone can beat Patricia Clarkson, who played a different, even more smothering mother in HBO’s Sharp Objects. Although a less obviously transformational performance than Arquette’s, Clarkson is a lot more crowd-pleasing, bringing an almost Tennessee Williams–like edge of caustic, undermining wit to her character, and injecting a welcome element of borderline camp into an otherwise funereal story.
But by all rights, this should be When They See Us director Ava DuVernay’s year. Equally impressive for its structure, its control of tone, its deployment of period details, the breadth of its research, and the depth of its feeling, it’s one of the finest TV productions to debut in the streaming era. —MZSBut the Emmy will go to … Johan Renck for Chernobyl.
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