'The massive Republican advantage that appeared to be defining this critical campaign cycle is much smaller than expected.' More from danschnur in our Perspectives section:
The latest travails in Trump-land have also certainly contributed to the upbeat Democratic mood. First, the January 6 congressional hearings and more recently, the fight over government secrets with which the former president absconded to Mar-a-Lago have not switched many Republicans away from their loyalty to Trump.
There have only been three midterm elections in the last century in which the president’s party gained seats, all three of which took place under extremely unusual circumstances. The most recent of the three was in 2002, when George Bush’s Republican Party won seats by emphasizing national security issues barely a year after the September 11 terrorist attacks.
Optimistic Democrats believe that Roe or Trump, or both, can create a similarly unusual political environment, which would allow them to maintain one or both of their narrow congressional majorities. Even Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell has begun to suggest that Democrats could maintain control in his chamber,(and subtly also blaming Trump, who recruited or supported several of them.
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