What to expect at the gas pump as the U.S.-Iran conflict escalates
“Yes, a harsh war of words will likely take place before diplomacy is used — that’ll keep the markets nervous and volatile but I don’t think this is going to reverse the bullish sentiment that the market has been in,” he said.
“I see this as a knee-jerk market reaction to startling news,” Gause said. “There will be an Iranian reaction, but it could be weeks away.”“The question is how, not whether, they will respond. For markets, the key issue is the impact of the Iranian response on oil prices,” Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a client note.
“Iran’s oil exports are already severely curtailed as a result of US sanctions. And while it appears that Iraq is being caught in the crosshairs of the U.S.-Iran tensions, it is unlikely to affect Iraq’s oil production directly,” Caroline Bain, chief commodities economist at Capital Economics in London, said in a client note.
Iran could strike at production facilities, ports or tankers — or harass vessels passing through the Straits of Hormuz, a critically important choke point through which an estimated one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes. “A lot of countries over there want to use proxies rather than having their flag flying over an attack boat or troops. There certainly are a lot of actions that Iran could take to disrupt oil production and oil shipping,” Lipow said.
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