After 20 years in the shadows, the Taliban have returned to power in Afghanistan, raising questions about stability in the Middle East and stoking some potential unrest in U.S. financial markets.
After 20 years in the shadows, the Taliban have returned to power in Afghanistan, raising questions about stability in the Middle East and stoking some potential unrest in U.S. financial markets, amid a weekend that was rife with political developments.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.257% was at 1.27% late Sunday in New York, attracting some haven bids, with prices of government debt rising and yields moving in the opposite direction. The U.S. presence in Afghanistan, spanning the tenures of Presidents George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump and Biden, started following the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, and is now considered the U.S.’s longest military conflict, surpassing World War I, World War II and the Korean War combined.
The Dow is up by nearly 270%, the S&P 500 has gained more than 300% and the Nasdaq Composite has climbed more than 700% since the fall of 2001.Historically, military conflict doesn’t always have an impact on stocks, and war’s influence, if any, on investors’ psyches isn’t always clear-cut. The context and economic and market environments are often a bigger driver.
Still, military aggressions may result in some investors turning to bets on defense contractors, which could see a boost if the animosities flare up. One popular way to play defense contractors broadly is the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ITA, -1.05% exchange-traded fund, which was created in 2006 and is up 13.7% in 2021 thus far. The SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF XAR, -1.67%, which kicked off in 2011, is up 7% year to date.
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