Heard on the Street: Young workers and job seekers in China are struggling, and until that is rectified, returning to the country’s pre-pandemic consumption trends could be challenging
, particularly in services and consumption?
Some of the factors weighing on China’s recovery are clearly temporary—particularly the recent coronavirus outbreak in Guangdong province, which shut down Shenzhen’s Yantian port, one of the nation’s largest. But the rise in youth unemployment, which initially appeared to be a temporary consequence of the pandemic, is starting to look more durable.
Some of this is clearly seasonal: New high school and college grads enter the workforce in the summer after they graduate. But a look at the youth unemployment trend heading back to the beginning of the new unemployment survey introduced in the late 2010s highlights a more worrisome trend. In 2018 and early 2019, youth unemployment never rose above 13.3% and tended to bounce around 10% or 11%. Since mid-2019, it has never fallen below 12%.
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