What next for Russia?

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What next for Russia?
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Ukraine’s army has mounted a series of increasingly ambitious counterattacks. Some of these appear to have been devastatingly effective

Save time by listening to our audio articles as you multitaskAccording to previous Russian announcements, backing off from Ukraine’s capital was not a gesture of much consequence. “Our main aim,” a trio of generals said at a defence-ministry briefing on March 25th, had always been “liberating Donbas”—two Russian speaking provinces in the east of the country. Before the invasion the Russian proxies in the two “People’s Republics” of Donetsk and Luhansk had occupied about a third of Donbas.

Nor is it the only one. Towards the end of March Ukraine’s army mounted a series of increasingly ambitious and effective counterattacks, including towards Kherson in the south, the only big city the Russians currently occupy. Some of these appear to have been devastatingly effective. Battles around Myrhorod, roughly half way between Kyiv and Kharkiv, 400km east, are thought to have resulted in severe losses for Russia’s 4th Guards Tank Division.

In recent weeks, Russian forces have attempted to move south from the north bank of the Donets river in Izyum, a town 125km south-east of Kharkiv, at the same time as they advance north along a front that stretches from the outskirts of Zaporizhia, on the Dnieper, to Mariupol on the coast. This looks like an attempt to isolate the Ukrainian troops fighting Russian proxies in Donbas—what Ukraine calls the Joint Forces Operation .

Some officials think that Mr Zelensky is asking for kit his country does not need, and is unlikely to get, so as to have a better bargaining position when it comes to things he really wants, such as more advanced air-defence systems. Others reckon that he needs to replenish his depleted stocks; there is no clear sense outside the country of how much materiel Ukraine has lost.

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