Most Russia experts and observers agree that something is going to happen on Monday, but nobody is sure just what that will be
Photo: Sputnik/Mikhail Metzel/Pool/via REUTERS It has been ten weeks since Vladimir Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine, and things still aren’t going according to plan. Having failed to secure the initial objective of capturing Kyiv, deposing Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and installing a pliant puppet regime, Russian forces have regrouped and focused their forces in the south and east, where U.S.
A map showing the state of the war as of May 8. Illustration: @War_Mapper/Twitter Putin might justify a mobilization by doubling down on his propaganda that Russia is somehow a victim of NATO aggression in this war and needs to take more dramatic steps to defend itself.
As Alperovitch pointed out, declaring victory would by no means require Putin to pull his forces out of Ukraine or stop fighting. Russian soldiers would instead attempt to solidify their gains and hold the territory they’ve occupied in the Donbas region and the southeastern corridor between the Donbas and Crimea.
To that end, Ukrainian officials say Russian forces in the depopulated and devastated port city of Mariupol are planning a military parade there on May 9. Per the officials, Russians are clearing bodies and rubble out of the streets in preparation, including debris from the theater where hundreds of civilians has sought shelter and were reportedly killed when Russia bombed the building .
Both sides are now in a race against time, as Russia adjusts its tactics to the reality on the ground and Ukraine tries to claw back territory as it awaits, from its allies, the arrival of weapons that it needs to retake major cities. It is too early to feel confident of any given outcome, but Ukraine remains utterly determined to fight off the Russian invasion and defend its territorial integrity, despite Putin’s best efforts so far to terrorize the country into submission.
Unfortunately, a swift victory for Ukraine is unlikely even in the best-case scenario. If Ukraine’s forces continue to overperform and Russia’s continue to flounder, Kyiv may not rapidly recapture the occupied territory in the east, but could fight Russia to an unsustainable stalemate. The scary unknown in this scenario is how Putin might lash out if he continues to lose and feels backed into a corner.
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