If Tsai Ing-wen wins, any near-term prospect of a thaw in relations across the Taiwan Strait would be ruled out
TAIWAN’S VOTERS go to the polls on January 11th to elect their president and parliament . If opinion surveys are any guide, the current president, Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party , which supports eventual independence, will beat Han Kuo-yu of the Kuomintang , which advocates closer ties with China. That would rule out any near-term prospect of a thaw in relations across the Taiwan Strait.
The DPP has been in power since 2016. In that time, relations between the two countries have worsened. China has flown military planes around the island, bullied and cajoled more of its few diplomatic allies into switching recognition to Beijing, and punished companies that treat Taiwan as separate from China.
Both Ms Tsai and her main rival, Mr Han, have rejected the idea of one country, two systems. But Mr Han shares China’s view that the two sides already have an understanding that there is only one China, even if they disagree about what that means—an accord often called the “1992 consensus”. Ms Tsai insists there was no such agreement.
The question of how to handle these ties has dominated the presidential race. But there are also domestic issues at stake, especially in the legislative polls. Ms Tsai has overseen three consecutive years of economic growth, but also of widening inequality. Wages have been stagnant and there are increasing concerns about air pollution. Last year Taiwan became the first Asian country to legalise gay marriage , a move backed by Ms Tsai.
Should she keep her job, Ms Tsai’s victory may have implications for Hong Kong. It is possible that China has been restrained so far in its response to the unrest because it has worried that tougher action might play into Ms Tsai’s hands. Were she to win, it might start demanding that Hong Kong’s government adopt harsher measures to crush the protest movement, though it would remain very reluctant to send in troops.
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