The French president keeps the lines open to Vladimir Putin, his Russian counterpart. But they have not spoken since September 2022
Second, after the invasion Mr Macron has spoken to his Russian counterpart more than has any other Western leader. The French president periodically evokes the possibility of peace talks, arguing that Russia’s concerns will need to be taken into account. Last year he pressed the case for “not humiliating” Russia. The conclusion in some quarters is that Mr Macron wants to push Ukraine into suing for peace.
The French presidency categorically denies this. At no moment, says an adviser, has Mr Macron put pressure on Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, to negotiate. Mr Macron has hardened his line on Russia, declaring on December 31st that France would support Ukraine “all the way to victory”. The change has been noted in Kyiv. “Macron’s statement indeed demonstrates a substantial shift,” said Andriy Zagorodnyuk, Mr Zelensky’s former defence minister, in a tweet responding to the news.
in December 2022. Both countries worry about escalation. President Joe Biden finds Mr Macron’s line to Mr Putin useful. The Americans also know that France is the European Union’s biggest military power. On January 20th the French president announced a massive 40% increase in the French defence budget for 2024-30, compared with 2019-25, to €413bn .
If France does send Leclerc tanks to Ukraine, it would probably be a symbolic rather than an operational decision. The French army has little more than 200 of the tanks in operation, and can spare few of them. Either way, Mr Macron has made his political and military support for Ukraine clearer than ever, even if France remains unlikely to take the lead.
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