Which direction did states move during the 2022 midterms — and what clues do we have about the outline of the 2024 presidential battleground map? Nightly reports 👇
A few other things have become clear as well. Iowa, Florida and Ohio — each of them carried by former President Barack Obama as recently as 2012 — weren’t really considered core battleground states in 2020. Now, after Republican blowouts in those states this fall, they should be removed from the 2024 discussion altogether.
While Democratic prospects might not be as grim in Texas, the recent results don’t give much hope either that 2024 will be the year that rapid demographic change finally leads to a Democratic breakthrough: Republicans won theirAt the same time, strong Democratic midterm performances in New Hampshire and Minnesota — a state which offered former President Donald Trump a rare offensive opportunity in 2020 — suggest they might not be worth contesting in 2024.
New Hampshire, which hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential nominee since 2000, also appears to be moving in the wrong direction — at least for a Republican Party led by Trump. In his first bid for president in 2016, he lost the state by less than one-half of a percentage point. Four years later, that margin was eight points. This year, Trumpist candidates lost both House races by healthy margins and the Senate election by double-digits. All of this took place as GOP Gov.
For Democrats, perhaps the most important midterm revelation of all was that the party is well-positioned to defend its “Blue Wall,” the term applied to a northern tier of 18 states, stretching from coast to coast, that appeared to provide a structural advantage for a Democratic nominee — at least prior to 2016, when Trump blew it up.
Michigan and Pennsylvania, big industrial states that serve as key building blocks in that wall, delivered sweeping victories for Democrats this year, two years after they rejected Trump’s bid for a second term. The populous suburbs outside Detroit and Philadelphia once again produced big Democratic margins — margins that buried Trump-endorsed, election denying GOP nominees for governor. Erosion in traditionally Republican western Michigan was another point of concern for the GOP.
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