The stock market should have a solid fourth quarter, even with turbulence that could come from the impeachment inquiry and trade tensions.
Earnings could help lift the market in the final quarter of the year, despite turbulence from the impeachment inquiry and trade war worries.
"It's a bull with a lower case 'b,'" said Sam Stovall, CRFA chief investment strategist. Stovall said about a 4% gain is possible by year end. Stocks have been tossed by trade worries, but supported by easing from the Fed and other global central banks. On the positive side, the economy is looking better than expected, earnings could therefore pick up, and the recession scare in bonds that drove interest rates sharply lower this summer is fading. Positive earnings surprises are outpacing negative, and when Citigroup's surprise index picks up, it's considered positive for stocks.
Analysts also expect a more positive view on the economy to show up in bond yields, which fell precipitously this summer in an extreme period of volatility for bonds. The 10-year touched 1.43% as September began, and it was at 1.66% Monday. Emanuel is less optimistic than some others about how much more the stock market can gain this year. His target puts the S&P 500 at 3,000 by year end and he says it can stay in a range for now that goes up to 3,030.
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