Wall Street analysts and investors see a risk that stocks could retest recent lows in the coming days or weeks as they worry about the spread of the virus and its impact on the economy, although some spot glimmers of light at the end of the tunnel.
FILE PHOTO: The Wall Street sign is pictured at the New York Stock exchange in the Manhattan borough of New York City, New York, U.S., March 9, 2020. REUTERS/Carlo Allegri/File Photo
Some point to easing volatility and improving liquidity in fixed-income markets as signs that the worst of the sell-off may be over. Investor sentiment, often seen as a contrarian indicator, is one signal pointing to an eventual turnaround in U.S. stocks. Still, markets remain turbulent and far off their highs.
Michael Hewson at online trading company CMC Markets said that U.S. futures may get a lift on Sunday by a “fall in the death rate in NY” and some other places. U.S. futures were up more than 1 percent soon after opening on Sunday.- Julian Emanuel at U.S. broker-dealer BTIG said in a research note on Sunday that if history is any sort of guide, he expects a “retest of the March lows in April, as the public health and economic bad news is likely to reach its parabolic peak.
Emanuel pointed to one “uncommon phenomenon indicative of systemic hedging,” saying the S&P 500 VIX, which measures volatility, is currently above the Nasdaq 100 VIX, which is “usually reserved for times of market stress.” Wood wrote that “markets are heading into the peaking of the bad news in Europe at the same time as cases in Britain and America, both behind in terms of the virus cycle because of the failure to lockdown earlier, continue to rise sharply,” Wood wrote. “This news flow is likely to unnerve investors in the short-term for understandable reasons.”Jefferies equity strategist Steven DeSanctis, however, in a separate note said, said that hedge funds’ de-risking “seems to be behind us.
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