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Wall Street is tempering its hopes for the US recovery. A handful of big banks say it's the American people who spoiled the party.
over the next 12 months, according to a survey conducted by BofA earlier in August. That's the smallest share since April 2020, when lockdowns just started to freeze the US economy. That print also came before retail sales data showed spending slow more than expected in July. The retail sales report shows a"sharp pullback in demand" and starts the quarter off"on a bad note," BofA economists led by Michelle Meyer said in a note. Even if spending bounces back in August and September, the bleak July print points to"relatively muted" growth in the third quarter, they added.
Still, both teams are holding out hope that spending can bounce back before 2022. The slump shouldn't last long, as the duration of Delta outbreaks in Europe suggest case counts in the US could start to fall in September, the Goldman economists said. The bank raised its fourth-quarter GDP forecast to 6.5% from 5.5% on Wednesday as well, noting the expected drop in cases should power a buying spree similar to that seen through spring.
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