The June report showed considerably stronger job growth than was generally expected.
The June employment report showed the economy created 372,000 jobs last month, with the private sector adding 381,000. Private sector employment is now 140,000 jobs above its pre-pandemic level. Total employment is still down 524,000, as local government employment is 599,000 below pre-pandemic levels, and state government employment is 57,000 below pre-pandemic levels. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.6 percent for the fourth consecutive month.
This is a huge deal because the Fed’s plans for aggressive rate hikes was based on a concern for a 1970s-type wage-price spiral. It is impossible to have a wage-price spiral when wage growth is slowing. As it is, the 4.3 percent annualized rate of wage growth is only a 0.9 percentage point higher than the 3.4 percent rate in 2019 when inflation was comfortably below the Fed’s 2.0 percent target.
Employment in hotels is still down 18.0 percent from its pre-pandemic level. Restaurant employment is 5.9 percent lower. It is likely that with a permanent decline in business travel, hotels will not recover their pre-pandemic employment levels. The same is likely the case with restaurants, where real sales are already well above pre-pandemic levels.
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