The result is not in doubt. The “vote count” will “reveal” that residents would love to be ruled by the invading power, Russia
referendums began in four mostly or partially occupied provinces of eastern and southern Ukraine—Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson—on the morning of September 23rd. Many of the Kremlin’s favourite tricks were deployed. In the city of Kherson the authorities delivered an unmarked ballot box to a central square, accompanied by two riflemen urging citizens to vote. Elsewhere in town, election officials went door-to-door with riot police.
The Russian-backed administrations of the four provinces announced plans for the five-day plebiscites earlier this week, following months of rumour and counter-rumour. The haste with which they are being held makes it unlikely that the spectacle will convince even Russians of their legitimacy. But Ukrainian forces have made such startling advances on the battlefield in recent weeks that the Kremlin appears to have concluded that it had to act quickly.
Ivan Fedorov, the exiled mayor of Melitopol, in Zaporizhia, says that Ukraine intended to ignore the “illegitimate” referendums. He adds that he was worried about the safety of Ukrainians living under occupation. Military-age men are particularly vulnerable. Immediately after the sham votes, Russia is expected to step up military mobilisation of Ukrainians in occupied territories, forcing them to fight against their compatriots.
There is no reliable opinion polling within the occupied territories—not least because most of their citizens have fled. Russian state broadcasting networks have published polling with wild claims of 80%-90% support for annexation. The final result, likely to be announced on September 27th, will probably be engineered close to those figures. Mr Fedorov claims that internal Russian polling, which he says was leaked to him, shows that fewer than 10% of residents are expected to take part.
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