This year's legislative elections in Virginia could determine the fate of local abortion rulemaking and gun policy, control of two narrowly divided statehouses and Gov. Glenn Youngkin's legislative agenda.
Political observers say the results could also give some hint about the mood of voters as the 2024 election cycle gets underway.
While Virginia has reliably voted Democratic in presidential races since 2008 -- Joe Biden beat Donald Trump there by 10 points -- its state and local elections are closer. "Virginia could become competitive again," Sabato said.Tuesday will see a total of 47 nominating contests: 31 of them Democratic and 16 for Republicans. GOP nominees have already been selected for an additional nine contests, which were conducted through party-run races over the past few weeks.
Given this, experts say primary results will have influence over the chances of either party winning Virginia's Legislature, as particular primary candidates may fare better or worse in a competitive general election. The 2017 elections were a watershed moment for this issue, when 12 Clean Virginia-backed candidates won seats in Virginia's House of Delegates. Now, more than two-thirds of state House Democrats are in that group -- compared to about half of state Senate Democrats. This year's record level of incumbent retirements, a result of Virginia's recent redistricting reform, could create new inroads in the usually incumbent-friendly chamber.
Early results from the previous nominating events have been mixed, as conventions have picked some Trump-aligned candidates and others have distanced themselves from their party's early presidential front-runner. In the Richmond suburbs, the Republican primary in the state Senate's 12th District pits Sen. Amanda Chase, a self-described "Trump in heels," against two more moderate conservatives: Glen Sturtevant, a former state senator, and business owner Tina Ramirez. Chase has butted heads with party leadership, receiving an official censure by the Virginia Senate when she praised those who participated in Jan. 6.
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