Forex Analysis by Investing.com (Barani Krishnan) covering: USD/JPY, US Dollar Index Futures, United States 10-Year, US dollar Futures. Read Investing.com (Barani Krishnan)'s latest article on Investing.com
was bobbing at between 149.32 and 149.09 — having survived the year-low and line in the sand of 150 drawn by Tokyo.Well before the fightback many think was engineered by Japan’s finance ministry — as of Wednesday, the nation’s top currency official Masato Kanda declined to say if the government had indeed stepped into the ring against the greenback — the bigger target of USD/JPY bulls was 155.
Everything, however, changed when the Fed’s projections for September — despite its pause on rates then — showed its determination to put in another quarter point increase in either November and December. Jawboning by an assortment of Fed officials since, on why rates need to stay restrictive, catapulted the Dollar Index to 11-month highs as of Tuesday.
So, we may go into late 2024 — or well beyond that, provided it even gets there — for the BOJ to unwind its super-easy settings.After traversing the Japanese financial, macro, social and forex landscape, the short answer from our analysis at Investing.com is “highly unlikely”.“If the BOJ acts on behalf of the government to boost the value of the yen by intervening in the currency market, it will be near-useless beyond the immediate impact if not accompanied by a narrowing in yield differentials.
“While Tokyo’s FX intervention could provide brief respite to the yen and curb speculative activity from time to time, it will not alter the currency's depreciatory trajectory as long as the underlying market fundamentals remain the same.”An analysis on USD/JPY would be remiss without an outlook on where the pair is headed.
Dixit also notes intraday consolidation below the 4-Hour Middle Bollinger Band of 149.50 that may cause sideways trades and a retest of the Simple Moving Average of the 4-Hour 100 SMA of 148.35 and the 200 SMA of 147.35.
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