The job market has cooled over the summer. But it’s still strong enough to defy predictions that higher interest rates would tip the United States into recession.
Hiring was up from 185,000 in June, a figure that the Labor Department revised down from an originally reported 209,000. Economists had expected to see 200,000 new jobs in July.
Unemployment fell to a notch above a half century low as 152,000 Americans entered the job force. The number of unemployed fell by 116,000. In July, health care companies added 63,000 jobs. But temporary help jobs – often seen as a sign of where the job market is headed – fell by 22,000. And factories cut 2,000 jobs.
The U.S. economy and job market have repeatedly confounded predictions of an impending recession. Increasingly, economists are expressing confidence that inflation fighters at the Federal Reserve can pull off a rare “soft landing” – raising interest rates just enough to rein in rising prices without tipping the world’s largest economy into recession.
The U.S. labor market “is now cooling in a gradual and orderly fashion in line with the policy goals at the Federal Reserve, which points to a growing probability of a soft landing for the economy,’’ said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist for the tax and accounting firm RSM. “Demand for labor remains solid but is clearly cooling compared to the torrid pace in 2021 and 2022.”In New Hampshire, the unemployment rate was 1.8% in June, tied with South Dakota for the nation’s lowest.
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